HopeWell knowledge platform

HopeWell Mortgage Research Institute

Original analysis of Canadian interest rates, Ontario mortgage conditions, private lending, commercial financing and the economic forces affecting borrowers and property owners.

Featured research28 min read

Bank of Canada Rate Forecast 2026: Cut, Hold or Hike?

HopeWell's probability-based analysis of inflation, bonds, CORRA futures, immigration, stagnant GDP, housing, mortgage renewals, productivity and Canada-US trade risks.

Bank of CanadaInterest ratesMortgage ratesCanadian economy
HopeWell Bank of Canada forecast showing probabilities of a hold, rate increase or rate cut

Research programs

What the Research Institute will examine

The Bank of Canada forecast is the first live publication. Additional recurring reports will be introduced as their methodology, data sources and review processes are completed.

Active

Bank of Canada Outlook

Scenario-based analysis of policy-rate decisions, inflation, bond markets, economic growth and mortgage implications.

View current research
Planned

Ontario Mortgage Outlook

Research into mortgage rates, renewals, borrower affordability, housing conditions and lending trends across Ontario.

Research program in development
Planned

Private Lending Conditions

Anonymized observations about private mortgage purposes, loan-to-value ratios, lender appetite and exit strategies.

Research program in development
Planned

Commercial Lending Conditions

Analysis of commercial property financing, debt-service coverage, valuations and lender appetite.

Research program in development
Planned

Funding Intelligence

Aggregated lessons and emerging patterns from HopeWell’s recently funded mortgage library.

Research program in development

Research, not rate speculation

HopeWell research is designed to explain the evidence, assumptions and uncertainties behind mortgage-market conclusions. Forecasts are judgmental analyses rather than guarantees, and they should not be treated as individualized mortgage advice.

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